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Executive Summary for January 29th

We review the key developments in Syria, including Turkish advances near Afrin, continued bombardment of East Ghouta despite a reported cease-fire and the U.N.’s Syria envoy arriving in Sochi to participate in the Syrian Congress of National Dialogue.

Published on Jan. 29, 2018 Read time Approx. 3 minutes

Turkish Troops Capture Strategic Hilltop as Erdogan Vows to Push Further East

Turkish troops and allied rebels on Sunday seized a strategic hill near a Kurdish enclave in northern Syria as they pressed on with a campaign against a Kurdish militia in the region, Agence France-Presse reported.

The capture of Mount Barsaya near the Kurdish town of Afrin is one of the first gains by Turkey-backed forces since Ankara launched an operation targeting the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) militia in Syria last week.

“The hill is significant because it overlooks the towns of Kilis and Azaz, either side of the Turkish-Syrian border,” AFP said.

Following the advance, Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that “Operation Olive Branch,” which has so far targeted the YPG stronghold of Afrin, could extend along the entirety of the Syrian-Turkish border, according to Reuters. “Step by step, we will clean our entire border,” Erdogan said in a speech.

Erdogan has repeatedly threatened to expand the operations in northern Syria in recent days. On Friday he said Ankara might extend operations eastward all the way to the Iraqi border to clear the YPG militia from areas near Turkey’s southern frontier. This has led to heightened tensions with NATO ally the United States, which has troops deployed in Kurdish-held regions east of Afrin.

Turkey’s foreign minister on Saturday called on the U.S. to withdraw its forces from the Kurdish-held town of Manbij, ahead of a potential Turkish attack on the area, according to Reuters.

However, General Joseph Votel, the commander of the United States Central Command, said that an exit from Manbij is not something Washington is considering, CNN reported on Monday. This means that Turkey-backed forces risk getting caught up in a confrontation with U.S. troops should Ankara follow through with its promise to attack the area.

East Ghouta Cease-Fire Undermined by Steady Stream of Violations

A cease-fire agreement to stop fighting in the besieged suburbs of Damascus failed to take hold on Sunday as government forces clashed with rebels in the opposition-held region, Reuters reported.

The Syrian opposition on Friday said that Russia pledged to try to enforce a cease-fire agreement in the Eastern Ghouta suburbs during United Nations-sponsored peace talks in the Austrian capital, Vienna.

The Syrian government and Russia did not publicly announce the cease-fire and on early Saturday bombardment of the rebel bastion continued, Reuters said. The attacks escalated on Sunday as rebels launched an offensive against a government base in the suburb of Harasta.

Citing the United Kingdom-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, Reuters said that the fighting was accompanied by large blasts, heavy shelling and airstrikes. A Hezbollah-affiliated war monitor claimed that pro-government forces repelled the attack by insurgent rebels, Reuters said.

Peace Congress in Sochi Seeks New Constitutional Commission, Popular Vote

United Nations Syria mediator Staffan de Mistura arrived on Monday at the Russian Black Sea resort of Sochi to take part in the Syrian Congress of National Dialogue.

Citing the Interfax news agency, Reuters said on Monday that de Mistura will head a new constitutional commission that will be set up at the Russian-sponsored peace congress this week.

The two-day talks on Monday and Tuesday will also “call for the Syrian people to decide their future by popular vote without external pressure,” Reuters said on Saturday, citing the RIA news agency, which reported on a draft communique of the congress.

“The Syrian people independently determine the future of its country democratically by way of the vote,” the agency quoted the document as saying.

Monday’s congress marks the first time peace talks have been hosted by Russia, an ally of the Syrian government. Representatives from Turkey and Iran will also join representatives of the Syrian government and its rivals in talks.

However, Syria’s main opposition group said on Friday that it would not be attending the congress, AFP reported. The announcement by the Syrian Negotiation Commission came after two days of failed U.N.-sponsored peace talks in Vienna.

Many other Syrian opposition groups have said they will boycott the congress. But the Moscow platform, “a dissident faction of the opposition,” has said it will attend talks, according to Al Jazeera.

Kurdish authorities have also said that they will boycott Russia’s peace congress because of a continued Turkish assault on Afrin, according to Middle East Eye.

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