Evacuation Buses Set on Fire

A group of armed men burned five buses that were to be used to evacuate civilians from pro-government villages near Idlib on Sunday, likely postponing already stalled evacuations in eastern Aleppo, Reuters reported.

The affiliation of the gunmen – who were shown in videos posted on social media shouting “God is great” after the buses were set aflame – is still unclear. Syrian state television said the men were “armed terrorists,” referring to opposition fighters, and the pro-government Mayadeen television pointed to members of the former Nusra Front, an extremist group now known as Jabhat Fatah al-Sham. Opposition officials blamed an angry crowd acting alongside government agents.

Meanwhile in Aleppo, some 26 miles (40km) northeast of Idlib, hundreds of opposition fighters and civilians waited on board buses that were unable to proceed after a three-day pause in the evacuations. Syrian state television said that some 15,000 people were waiting to be evacuated from the rebel enclave.

Thousands of people were evacuated from the city on Thursday under a cease-fire deal that aims to end fighting in Syria’s largest city. Insurgents have reportedly agreed to allow for the evacuation of civilians in besieged pro-government villages outside of Idlib.

Aleppo has been divided between opposition fighters and pro-government forces for much of the country’s six-year-long civil war until November, when the Syrian army and its allies began pushing rebel militants from much of their territory in eastern Aleppo.

Russia to Block U.N. Monitors for Aleppo Evacuation

Russia said on Sunday that it planned to block United Nations efforts to send observers to monitor the evacuation of fighters and civilians from eastern Aleppo, the New York Times reported.

In the wake of reports recounting atrocities, senior United Nations officials have called on the Syrian government to grant it permission to monitor the evacuation.

The French ambassador to the U.N., Francois Delattre, said the resolution requesting access to the evacuations aimed to prevent another Srebrenica, referring to the city in Bosnia that became the site of a massacre in 1995 during the Balkan Wars.

Meanwhile Moscow’s envoy to the United Nations, Vitaly I. Churkin, described the resolution as a “provocation” that could prompt a disaster. Diplomats said that negotiations with Russia were continuing on Sunday.

Monitors from the International Committee of the Red Cross and the Syrian Arab Red Crescent are currently in Aleppo, but do not report to the United Nations Security Council.

Idlib Syrian Army’s Likely Next Target

After the fall of Aleppo, it is likely that the Syrian army and its allies will turn their attention to the province of Idlib, a rebel stronghold, the Associated Press reported.

Idlib, a province to the west of Aleppo known to be a center of activity for al-Qaida’s Syria offshoot, formerly called the Nusra Front, is home to some 50,000 rebels and numbers are increasing as evacuations of fighters from besieged areas in rebel-held territory takes place. Idlib was used as a base for the counter-assault on Aleppo in October of this year that initially broke the Syrian government’s siege of the city.

Syrian president Bashar al-Assad told Russian media this week that identifying the next target for military operations, after fortifying positions surrounding Aleppo, would depend on where “the largest number of terrorists” are and where they are able to receive support from other countries. Idlib province borders Turkey, where rebel fighters have access to munitions and other supplies.

One journalist referred to Idlib as the “Kandahar of Syria,” referring to the former seat of the Taliban government in Afghanistan. The high number of al-Qaida-affiliated fighters would make a possible large-scale offensive easier to justify to the international community.

RECOMMENDED READS:

• The Economist: Aleppo Presents a Moral Dilemma for Christian Leaders
• Carnegie: Divided, They May Fall
• Al Jazeera: The Unraveling of Syria’s Eastern Ghouta
• The Christian Science Monitor: As Aleppo Falls, Russia and Iran See Mideast Influence Surge at U.S. Expense
• The Daily Beast: Pope Francis Pens Letter to Assad in Plea for Peace in Syria