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Q&A: Marwan Muasher on Syria’s Impact on Jordan

On Feb. 16, a Jordanian army spokesman said that Jordan border patrols killed a gunman who opened fire at them as he attempted to cross in from Syria.

Written by Karen Leigh Published on Read time Approx. 4 minutes

It is the second clash on the Syrian border this week. On Saturday, another Jordanian patrol returned fire at 10 gunmen in an isolated area of the border region.

The exchanges sparked fears that tension could be coming to a head in Jordan, where spillover from the Syrian conflict has furthered an economic crisis. Thus far Jordan has taken in more than 600,000 Syrian refugees. (The sprawling Zaatari camp, on its northern border, is now the fourth-largest city in Jordan.) In Amman, Jordanian laborers are now competing for jobs with Syrians who are willing to accept lower wages, sparking local resentment.

A United Nations report said the crisis had cost Jordan $5 billion by the end of 2013, while the government said that it had received just $800 million in international donor funds in compensation. The refugee issue was central to the agenda of a meeting between President Barack Obama and Jordan’s King Abdullah II at a Feb. 14 meeting in California, where Obama promised to ask Congress for a new round of financial aid for the Hashemite Kingdom.

We asked Dr. Marwan al-Muasher, former deputy foreign minister of Jordan and the current vice president for studies at the Washington-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, to weigh in on the impact the crisis is having on Jordan. 

Syria Deeply: How stretched are Jordan’s resources as a result of Syria spillover?

Marwan al-Muasher: You’re talking about some cities that have more Syrians than Jordanians [living in them now], which means that the local population has competition over jobs with Syrians. There is huge tension over water, because Jordan was already [lacking an adequate water supply] per capita even before the refugee influx, and Zaatari is [factored] in on top of that. A lot of water is being taken that cannot be replenished, and that’s causing a problem.

SD: How is the government coping?

MM: The government is frustrated because it estimates that it is costing $2 billion per year, or $1.5 billion, to support the refugees, and it is not being compensated fully by the international community. And this comes at a time when the budget deficit in Jordan is already about 14 percent. For all these reasons there’s a lot of frustration. The sectarian divide is also helping to radicalize some of the Salafi organizations in Jordan. Jordan is worried that it might face some radical groups at its border.

There’s a lot of frustration and a realization that there can be no military solution. No side can win the war. On the other hand, there is a fear that the status quo might remain the same for years, which can only mean more radicalization of the conflict and more instability.

SD: Would Jordan ever consider closing its border to Syrians, if things got bad enough?

MM: It has never done that in the past. It has received waves of refugees from Palestine, from Kuwait, from Iraq in 2003, but it has never closed the door. At the same time, it is not the same [economic situation] as it once was. So I cannot say with certainty whether it will close or not.

SD: How pervasive an issue is Syria among Jordanian people? Is it being felt now as far south as Amman, or is the awareness concentrated in the border area?

MM: It is being talked about increasingly as the number of Syrians increases. In the north it is felt very strongly, because there are more Syrians [living there now] than there are Jordanians. In the south it is less of a problem, because they don’t [physically] see them as much as they do in the north. In the service industry, the number of Syrians working in Amman is noticeably higher than it used to be, and they accept any wage, so that has created competition.

SD: How bad is Jordan’s economic situation right now?

MM: It’s very bad, even without the refugees, it’s at a 14 percent budget deficit. Jordan worked very hard to bring down the budget deficit to 3.5 percent, and at 14, it’s not sustainable. Public debt is [high] and the Syrian crisis can only add to that.

SD: Could the Syria issue and economic issues destabilize the authority of King Abdullah II?

MM: There is no problem with the king or the monarchy in Jordan. No one in Jordan wants the king or the monarchy to leave. They want the monarchy to act as an advocate over these issues. There is no call in Jordan for an overthrow of the monarchy, and I don’t expect the Syrian situation to change that.

SD: What do you see for Jordan going forward, as the Syria crisis continues?

MM: I don’t see any quick solution to the Syrian crisis. Jordan is going to unfortunately face more refugees and pressure on its economy; I don’t see any of that changing. Jordan needs aid. There is a lot of aid going to international organizations that are providing aid directly to the refugees, but [not very much] in terms of aid that goes to the Jordanian government to compensate for water loss, education and health facilities [for the Syrians]. These are paid for by the government, and Jordan is not getting enough aid to cover all of that.

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