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Voice from Moscow: More Confidence in Bashar

Earlier this month, Russia and the U.S. agreed to schedule long-delayed Syria peace talks in Geneva.

Written by Karen Leigh Published on Read time Approx. 2 minutes

Though they did not reveal concrete plans to convene Syrian opposition leaders and government officials, it was a slight thaw in a relationship that has grown increasingly tense as the U.S. arms Syrian rebels and Russia continues its support of President Bashar al-Assad. As the war drags on, we asked Petr Topychkanov, an associate in the Carnegie Moscow Center’s Nonproliferation Program, to gage the mood in the Russian capital.

Syria Deeply: How do the Russian people feel about involvement in Syria?

Petr Topychkanov: It’s a very difficult question, because the Syrian program is [closed off] to Russian citizens. So people who are trying to understand the situation in Syria usually try to understand it in the context of the relationship between Russia and the U.S. And I don’t see that it’s a good approach, because they don’t understand the Syrian situation in itself, and not [without the] context of Moscow and Washington.

In Moscow, we see the situation in Syria in context of other wars in the Middle East and Europe. I should recall Yugoslavia and the war in Libya, and the removal of the Gadhafi regime with the help of NATO. So those Russians who think about the Syrian situation don’t want active participation in the Western countries and NATO allies, because they think that if NATO and Western allies will participate in this conflict, it will mean regime change in Syria.

Regime change is another important issue from the Russian point of view. If Russians think about the Syrian situation, they recall all the cases of regime change. I don’t think it’s an appropriate way to think about Syria. All these issues between the U.S. and Russia, and the West and Russia, are not important in the context of the Syrian problem. The problem’s complicated enough itself without the participation of Syrian players.

SD: How does the Russian government feel about the way the war is going, and the gains Assad has made? Is it confident?

PT: The government is more confident now about a victory [for] Bashar al-Assad because the government could [rally] military and technical support over it. The government can see that the West is still not ready to play an active role in Syria, because the West is now dealing with other internal problems. These two points make the Russian government more confident about a victory.

SD: How has Syria impacted U.S.-Russian relations?

PT: Relations on the political level are of course not good enough. Political problems related to the case of [U.S. whistleblower Edward] Snowden reflect the current state of relations between the U.S. and Russia. But right now we don’t have a [non-Syria] agenda [about which] to talk to each other. As for arms control, we have active agreement, and we don’t need to talk about other issues.

As for Syria, current problems in our relations don’t help resolve the case. But from another point of view, maybe it will – because it will help Russia to see the Syria problem [on its own] and not relating to the problems between Washington and Moscow. The Syrian problem should be resolved by Syrian citizens, and Moscow and Washington should only be supportive of the process.

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