Underground Thaw Is a Threat Now and in the Future
Alaska’s permafrost is under threat. Satellite and ground-based measurements show that 38 percent of mainland Alaska is permafrost, or soil that has been frozen for two years or longer. But a new study by the U.S. Geological Survey suggests that 16 to 24 percent of Alaska’s permafrost will fade by the end of the century, the Guardian reports.
Warmer air temperatures are thawing and degrading the permafrost and are expected to have greater impacts on the state’s forested areas. The thaw would release carbon that has been stored in the soil for thousands of years. Setting free carbon dioxide and methane would fuel further warming.
Earlier this year, researchers pointed out the high cost of permafrost thaw. The increased greenhouse gas emissions from the thaw could cost $43 trillion in economic damage in the next century, according to researchers from the University of Cambridge and the University of Colorado.
Thawing permafrost has been blamed for the dramatic loss of a lake in the Northwest Territories. The lake slipped off a cliff and tumbled into a valley, releasing 30,000 cubic meters of water, about the equivalent of a dozen Olympic-sized swimming pools, within two hours, according to a report from the Canadian Press.
Clock Ticks for Paris Climate Agreement
Negotiators at the climate change talks in Paris released the latest draft of the agreement yesterday. The Associated Press reports that while there is widespread hesitation about the current version of the agreement, no country has turned it down.
The draft document has been shaved down from 48 pages to 29 pages since Saturday, but there are still many places where negotiators must still come to a resolution, including article 2.2, which covers human rights. The rights of indigenous peoples has been removed from that section, reports the Nunatsiaq News. The New York Times reminds us how the climate change talks ended in Copenhagen in 2009.
There is still a push to drop the target for maximal warming to 1.5C (2.7F) by 2100. Knocking down the target by half a degree could have major repercussions on the planet. Inside Climate News points to an expert review published by the U.N. in May for perspective.
The report indicates that “most terrestrial and marine species would be able to follow the speed of climate change; up to half of the coral reefs may remain; sea level rise may remain below 1 m; some Arctic sea ice may remain; ocean acidification impacts would stay at moderate levels; and more scope for adaptation would exist, especially in the agricultural sector.”
Despite this distinction, there is still some scientific uncertainty in the outcomes of 2C (3.6F) of warming, which can make it difficult to build international climate policy. An article in the MIT Technology Review points to an alternate policy approach that adjusts according to what has happened instead of what might happen. Under the proposed system, “The world must reduce emissions by 10 percent for every one-tenth of a degree of warming (beyond the 1C mark we have already effectively reached).”
Winter Sea Ice Melt Predicted to Slow
Winter sea ice melt may slow in the next five years, with continued sea ice loss in some areas counted by growth in others, such as the Barents Sea. The predictions come from new research by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado. They have developed a way to make sea ice predictions about whether winter sea ice will shrink or grow, based on changes in the North Atlantic ocean circulation, Accuweather.com reports.
“We know that over the long term, winter sea ice will continue to retreat,” Stephen Yeager, the lead author of the new study, published in Geophysical Research Letters, said in a press release.
Sea ice typically grows over the winter, reaching a maximum in late February. Winter sea ice is less vulnerable to changes in weather. This year, the maximum extent was the lowest on record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. It reached 4.54 million square kilometers (5.61 million square miles). Below average conditions were found everywhere, except in the Davis Strait and the Labrador Sea.
Recommended Reads
- Nature: Paris Climate Talks, Day 11: What We’re Reading
- Huffington Post: The Arctic Is a Frozen Security Blanket for the World
- Pulitzer Center: Born to Rewild: A Father and Son Seek to Transform the Arctic and Save the World
- Pacific Standard: From Shishmaref to Paris: How to Keep a Culture from Drowning?
- Pacific Standard: What Does Vladimir Putin Really Think About Climate Change?
- The Arctic Institute: The E.U. Needs a Two-Tier Approach Towards the Arctic: A General Policy for the Circumpolar Arctic and a Concrete Strategy for the European Arctic
Top image: As much as 25 percent of Alaska’s permafrost could thaw by 2100 due to global warming, much like this slump in Canada’s northwest territories. (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer)